Blogs for John McCain

Perhaps all of the polls having Obama ahead are wrong, and GOP Internal Polling is right!

New Jersey: McCain 48% - Obama 43% - Undecided 7%

Michigan: McCain 44% - Obama 42% - Undecided 10%

California: Obama 44% - McCain 43% - Undecided 9%

If McCain can win California, that is 55 electoral votes. I do not see how Obama can win the Presidency without California.

Just get out and vote, folks. The numbers will work themselves out.

Hat Tip: Thanks to Scoop This reader Tess for bringing this to my attention.

My Way News

WASHINGTON (AP) - Barack Obama leads John McCain in the state-by-state race to 270 electoral votes and the White House, but eight states with a decisive 109 votes are still up for grabs as they plunge into the final weeks of a stubbornly tight presidential campaign.

The candidates’ face-to-face debates, scheduled to begin Friday night, will provide the next big chance to change the electoral lineup, especially in the eight states that are still considered tossups: perennial powerhouses Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Western targets Colorado and Nevada, Wisconsin in the Midwest, traditional swing state New Hampshire and newly competitive Virginia.

In a political environment that dramatically favors Democrats and appears to be further trending toward them, Obama has 18 states and the District of Columbia, offering 229 votes, in his column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has 24 states with 200 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of public and private polls, television spending and interviews with strategists in both parties.

Like the tossups, the status of other competitive states could change in coming weeks. Of those, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa and New Mexico are currently leaning toward Obama, while Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina are leaning toward McCain.

Before a certain girl I know starts sending me hate mail, Real Clear Politics shows that McCain is up by 3 points in North Carolina. Also, as Kelsey always mentions, do not believe the polls. But, I have to admit, they are fun to watch! And sometimes, infuriating to watch.

The Daily Gallup tracking poll shows John McCain and Barack Obama in a dead heat at 46%.

Rasmussen shows that Barack Obama is up 49% to 46%.

After McCain decided to suspend his campaign, Zogby shows that McCain leads Obama 46% to 44%.

The Real Clear Politics average shows that Obama leads 8 of 10 polls, while McCain leads in 1 poll and both are tied in another poll. However, the numbers are a bunch of crap! The ABC News / Washington Post poll shows Obama up by 9 points nationwide with only a 780-person sample size! Obama is up by 6 points nationwide in the Fox News poll with only an 900-person sample size. Bull… Crap!

The path to victory really lies in three states, so both candidates better focus most of their time in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. McCain and Palin have a unique advantage: they both have the ability to generate large crowds. Obama has the same ability, but I highly doubt Joe Biden has the same effect as Sarah Palin. McCain should send Palin out to all of the battleground states, have her campaign in those states and attract huge crowds, while McCain campaigns around the rest of the country.

Remember, polls are bullshit. Get out and vote November 4th!

Hat Tips: Hot Air and Hot Air

Several blogs ago, I wrote a piece instructing readers not to believe political polls citing real evidence that they inaccurately favor Democrats. I predicted that the polls would project a lead for John McCain after his convention (which they did) in order to avoid a loss in credibility. After that projection, I predicted that they would slowly wear away at McCain’s lead and eventually, Obama would be “ahead” again. This is happening as we speak.

In a new CBS Poll, Obama is ahead by 5% in a 49% to 44% lead over John McCain. In looking at the hard data of the poll, I found the same pattern that existed prior to McCain’s surge in the polls: the poll interviewed a significantly larger number of “Democrats” compared to “Republicans” even though previous research I’ve cited shows that the actual weighting of these demographics is near equal with Republicans at 45% and Democrats at 46%.

Well, as with polls prior to the Republican convention where they gave Obama a lead, the latest CBS poll interviewed 35% more Democrats than Republicans. This compared to their polls immediately following the convention which gave McCain a lead and which interviewed only 20% more Democrats than Republicans.

Also, if you take a look at the “weighted” vs. “interviewed” numbers in the most recent CBS poll, you’ll notice a continued trend where they tend to throw out more interviews with “Republicans” than Democrats.

This is without even considering the fact that all CBS polls tend to interview the same number of “independents” as “democrats” and usually more than “Republicans,” even though “independents” only make up about 9% of the population!

So the point is, nothing has changed in McCain’s lead prior to and after the conventions. In order to put Barack Obama ahead in the polls barely outside the margin of error, CBS had to give the Democrats a 35% handicap while McCain leads in the polls even when the Democrats still have a handicap, albeit slightly lower at 20%! The only thing that keeps changing is how the pollsters keep manipulating the demographics of those that they interview. McCain’s real lead is solid and he will win.

Rasmussen Reports

For the third straight day, McCain leads Obama in Rasmussen’s national tracking poll. People likely to vote for McCain are now more excited than people to vote for Obama.

Chance of Victory: McCain 52.4% - Obama 46%

Favorable Rating: McCain 57% - Obama 53% (Some voters like both candidates. Interesting.)

Party Support: 90% of Republicans support McCain. 82% of Democrats support Obama.

Independents: McCain +6%

Electoral College: McCain 200 votes - Obama 193 votes

Electoral College (with “leaners”): McCain 247 votes - Obama 259 votes

McCain is leading in almost all of the polls, plus is gaining ground in all battleground states and some “blue” states. All the polls are looking well for McCain, but everyone needs to get out and vote on November 4th!

tampabay.com

Obama has spent $8 million on television ads in Florida, but has lost ground over the summer in the Sunshine State, and now three of four Florida polls show McCain ahead by 5 to 8 percentage points, with one poll showing both candidates tied. Obama has set up the largest Democratic campaign organization ever. Obama has 350 paid staffers and 50 field offices in Florida including offices in Sun City Center, Lake City, and the city where I blog from, Sebring. However, I can guarantee that Obama will not win Sebring, nor Florida. Why? Because Obama is trailing farther behind against McCain in Florida than John Kerry was trailing behind in Florida against President Bush in 2004. President Bush won the state of Florida by a margin of 380,978 votes. McCain will win Florida by at least the same margin.

Zogby has McCain leading in Pennsylvania.

McCain - 49.1%
Obama - 44.3%
Not Sure/Other - 6.6%

“This is a classic case of polling as a snapshot in time. We’re turning Pennsylvania purple today, as McCain takes a small edge. But as in Ohio, we are watching this closely and things could change in this classically blue state.”

Zogby’s polling is very volatile, but in this case, I believe Zogby is right about Pennsylvania. Real Clear Politics is also showing that Pennsylvania is a “toss up” state. RCP is also showing Ohio as a “toss up” state. If McCain can win Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, there is not much Obama can do to win even if Obama steals Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico.

Hat Tip: Hot Air

According to Real Clear Politics, McCain is leading in 8 of 11 polls taken in September, is tied with Obama in another poll, and Obama leads two polls by only a +1 margin. McCain leads in 4 of 5 polls ending on September 11th.

RCP Average: McCain 47.5% - Obama 45%

Gallup: McCain 48% - Obama 45%

Hotline / FD: McCain 44% - Obama 45%

Rasmussen: McCain 48% - Obama 45%

Associated Press: McCain 48% - Obama 44%

When it comes to the experience to lead versus inexperience to lead:

McCain: 80% experienced - 15% inexperienced

Obama: 46% experienced - 47% inexperienced

White voters: McCain 55% - Obama 37%

Suburban White voters: McCain +24%

White voters with little college education: McCain +26%

White male voters: McCain +26%

Married White voters: McCain +26%

Rural voters: McCain +23%

65 years old or older voters: McCain +13%

30 years old or younger voters: Obama 61% - McCain 35%

Minority voters: Obama has a 5 to 1 advantage among minority voters.

Women voters: Obama +5%

White Women voters: McCain 53% - Obama 40%

Values and Principles: McCain +9%

Issues: McCain +8%

Gallup.com

PRINCETON, NJ — John McCain leads Barack Obama, 49% to 44%, in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention, according to the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking results.

These results are based on Sept. 5-7 interviewing, and are the first in which all interviews were conducted following the completion of the GOP convention. Immediately prior to the convention’s Sept. 1 start, Aug. 29-31 interviewing showed McCain with 43% support among registered voters, compared with 49% today. Thus, Gallup credits McCain with a six-point convention bounce.

That is slightly better than Barack Obama’s four-point bounce from 45% in Aug. 22-24 polling before the Democratic National Convention started to 49% immediately after it concluded. Since 1964, the typical convention bounce has been five percentage points.

Well, I believe this poll more than the 10-point lead poll. McCain, today, is either tied or leading in all of the polls. However, the McCain campaign needs to take a look at the polling in battleground states and hold campaign rallies in those states. McCain needs to visit all of the rural counties as well because that is exactly what Obama is doing to try to win the election.

Also, if you read the Gallup article at the top, you will see a graph showing that Senator John Kerry received a negative 1 percentage point bounce after his convention. Awesome.

USA Today

Wow! Let me gather my thoughts…

Breaking News…

Developing…

UPDATE 1: Alright, here are the correct polls.

USA TODAY: From the article above.

When considering registered voters: McCain 50% - Obama 46%

When considering likely voters: McCain 54% - Obama 44%

Zogby reports:

McCain-Palin 49.7% vs. Obama-Biden 45.9%

McCain 48.8% vs. Obama 45.7%

Gallup reports:

McCain 48% vs. Obama 45%

RealClearPolitics reports:

McCain 46.7% vs. Obama 45.7%

UPDATE 2: Another poll.

Rasmussen reports:

McCain-Palin 46% vs. Obama-Biden 46%

Earlier today, Scoopthis broke a story which advised readers to be aware of certain bias in political polls due to the leftward leanings of the top polling organizations USA Today/Gallup, CNN, CBS News, and Reuters/Zogby. Citing a recent CBS News Poll completed 8/31, Scoopthis pointed out that the political demographic of that poll, which gave Obama an 8 point lead, did not match the actual political demographic of the United States. Specifically, the 8/31 Poll’s participants were made up of 26% Republicans, 35% Democrats, and 38% Independents. Actual research, cited in the article, pointed out that the actual political demographic of the United States is 45% Republican, 46% Democrat, and 9% Independent. More on that story here.

In analyzing a new CBS poll, out hours ago, little has changed in CBS’s strategy for polling. While Obama has fallen from his previous 8 point lead in the poll to a 42% to 42% tie, the CBS poll once again does not reflect a truly representative sample of the American People. The most recent poll had 31% Republican participants, 34% Democrats, and 34% Independents. This is compared to the actual political demographic of America (according to this pew research study) made up of 45% Republican, 46% Democrat, and 9% Independents.

With the seemingly deliberate inaccuracies in the sample demographic of people who took this poll, it is impossible to know where McCain and Obama truly stand in relation to each other, were the election held today. With this latest poll, we’re in the same position we always were: In the Dark.