This is Not Over!
Posted by Kelsey Golden on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Get out there and vote! I just received this email from a local political scientist by the name of Dr. Alan Sager. He has been closely analyzing voter turnout in my area and has discovered trends that simply do not match what the media is telling us.
Turnout is key in this election so if you support John McCain and have not already voted, please go to the polls NOW!
Here’s the email from Dr. Sager:
I now have all the e.v. data through October 31st, about 300,000 early votes.
If you did not see my first analysis through October 28th, it is included at the end.The trends continue:
1. Under 25 voters continue to vote at a far lower rate than everyone else 29% versus an actual early voting turnout(total registered minus suspended) of 60%2. Over 60 voters continue to vote at a rate far higher than everyone else 67% versus 60% Both of these trends are normal for our bi-yearly elections.
3. There is a pool of nearly 140,000 very unlikely voters in the 610,000 supposedly registered voter in Travis.
These include those who are suspended and those who were registered but did not vote in both 2004 and 2006. So the maximum number of voters we could get is around 470,000 if everyone else showed up.We may have a record but it won’t be the 450,000 to 500,000 predicted by our County Clerk.
4. The rate of turnout so far, by registration date is:
55% for those registered before the 2004 election and 51% for those registered after the 2004 election.5. Of the people coded in my database prior to the 2008 primary, the turnout so far of D’s and R’s so far is about the same 72 0%. For 2008 primary voters only , 77% of the D’s and 72% of the R’s have voted early. So there is a bit more intensity on he D side, perhaps.
6. About 7% of the suspended voters have voted so far. Since I do not have a baseline from previous elections, I do not know if this is high or normal. While it seems a little high to me, I will figure it out after the election. I did speak to one of the county election officials in whom I have great confidence-(We have worked on 3 primaries together and she is very competent and not partisan in the execution of her job) She told me every cycle they get boxes and boxes of change of addresses when people come to vote, many of which are suspended voters.What does all this data mean. First things look pretty normal , low youth vote, high older citizen vote, higher interest among primary voters, more interest the longer you have lived in Austin and so on.
Second, it suggests even in a college town like Austin where one would expect much more intensity among younger voters, given the large number of college students here, the younger voters may not be as revved up as the media portrays. Of course, it is in the media’s interest to help Obama by such a portrayal.
The kicker in this whole thing is the meaning of the 2008 Primary. How many R’s and general election voters who usually vote R, went into the D primary. I have not seen any reliable figures on that one. My analysis suggests upwards of 15-20% of those primary voters were previous Republican primary voters(9% of the D primary vote) and Republican leaning independents.(6-11%)
If this is so, our chances may be much better than we think and we need to keep our intensity up for the next 20 hours or so. The D’s and the press continue to beat us down and tell us it is over. IT is not! I think we have a good possibility to get our base county wide vote in Travis to 38 or 39% in this election which would be enough to hold on to most of what we have in Austin or in districts which include Austin.
The media has abandoned reporting the news and is instead driving around precincts that they know support Obama until they find a long enough line to report their story. When they want to show the "record youth vote," they simply go to a college campus precinct. This election is not over and if you fail to vote, you are allowing the media to steal this election. Don’t let this discourage you… the only poll that matters is the one in the ballot box!
(4 Ratings)
Filed Under: = BREAKING NEWS =, News & Politics
LOL!
She does need some breasts. I’m lucky too! I’ll...
November 4th, 2008 at 12:51 pm
I am going to ignore polls today. I’m going to vote and I am not going to let the media convince me all is lost.